5:05 PM
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Scholars of the primaries will remember the run-up to 2012 as the most fluctuating pre-primary season in a long time. We've seen the rise and fall of one candidate after another, briefly challenging Mitt Romney for frontrunner status for the Republican nomination. As I noted at my Pajamas piece last week, things would likely change. But I'm surprised at how quickly Newt's surge has deflated. I guess Mitt really does have the momentum at this late date. The question now is how quickly he'll be able to wrap up the nomination. Remember, it's an elongated season, so surprise victories in the early states can still change the dynamics of the race. Especially interesting will be watching what happens to Ron Paul.

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